“If anyone asks us to surrender our rights, I’ll be the first to oppose.”
– Tan Sri Bernard Dompok, former Sabah chief minister
I SELDOM follow Sabah politics, but one thing is for sure; it has always been a theatre of the unpredictable, and the coming state election, which is expected by November, will be no exception. If anything, it promises to be one of the most complicated contests in the state’s history, with alliances shifting, personal ambitions colliding, and federal-state relations looming over every move.
A veteran journalist in Kota Kinabalu I spoke to just hours before I wrote this column summed it up candidly: “It’s going to be a very complicated game … Honestly, it is very complicated, and it will get messy. At the end of the day, it will be a federal versus state affair.
“Once again, expect a backstabbing fiesta; not that we didn’t have backstabbing in past elections, only this time around it will be intense, and a lot of people are going to feel it.”
That remark captures the mood in Sabah today. For Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor and his Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition, made up of no fewer than eight parties, the election is about political survival. For their rivals, it is about reasserting relevance.
And for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, it is about keeping Sabah aligned with his federal government while navigating the risk of empowering parties like UMNO, which could eventually unsettle him in Malaya.
The problem for Hajiji is straightforward: his coalition, while broad, is fragile. His own party, Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat), can perhaps secure around seven seats. Without the support of key allies like Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) and Sabah STAR, his grip on power would be tenuous.
Already there are signs of strain. Datuk Seri Dr Jeffrey Kitingan of Sabah STAR and Datuk Seri Yong Teck Lee of SAPP are unhappy with Hajiji’s growing warmth toward Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH). If Hajiji pushes GRS into a pre-election pact with PH, Jeffrey and Yong may well walk away, leaving Hajiji severely weakened and forcing them into direct confrontation with him.
Yet Hajiji has little choice but to look towards PH. Anwar sees him as a “valuable partner” in Sabah, particularly after the Kinabalu Move that threatened to topple his government. For Hajiji, federal backing provides not just political legitimacy but also the resources and protection he needs against corruption allegations and the erosion of grassroots confidence. This calculus could push him into a risky embrace with PH, even if it alienates partners within GRS.
On the other side of the divide are UMNO, led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin, and Parti Warisan Sabah (Warisan), helmed by Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal. Both parties are formidable players, each with its own entrenched support bases. UMNO remains a force in many Muslim Bumiputera areas, and its machinery is still well-oiled despite internal factional wars.
Bung Moktar, though not the most popular face, could emerge as a contender for the chief ministership if UMNO performs well. Warisan, meanwhile, continues to dominate the East Coast, where Shafie is almost a political brand name. His extensive family ties and record of contributions give him an aura that remains resilient despite criticisms that he has lost direction, particularly after his ill-fated foray into Malayan politics.
Still, Shafie is not without weaknesses. Warisan’s appeal is largely confined to the East Coast, and the departure of Datuk Peter Anthony in 2021 to form Parti Kesejahteraan Demokratik Masyarakat (KDM) dented its Kadazandusun support.
Internally, there is frustration over Shafie’s leadership style, with members demanding a change in approach. Yet his ability to retain loyalty where it matters most means Warisan cannot be dismissed as a serious challenger.
KDM, though relatively new, has injected further complexity into the equation. With Peter’s Murut base and Datuk Wetrom Bahanda’s presence in Kota Marudu, KDM is positioned to split votes in areas where PBS and STAR are traditionally strong. This three-cornered dynamic in Kadazandusun-majority areas could decisively alter outcomes, particularly if GRS fails to keep PBS and STAR within its fold.
Adding to this volatile mix is the role of PH in Sabah. The coalition comprising PKR, DAP and UPKO holds only seven seats at present, but its position is strengthened by the federal government’s resources and patronage.
However, PKR remains the weakest link in PH. The party has little local charisma and has suffered from internal discontent, with members leaving over what they perceive as weak leadership. The appointment of Datuk Mustapha Sakmud as Sabah PKR chief may revive some momentum, but his low profile limits his capacity to elevate the party. PH’s influence will therefore depend heavily on how far Hajiji is willing to align with them.
The election will also be fought on issues beyond political personalities. Sabahans are increasingly frustrated by their state’s developmental lag compared to Sarawak. The painfully slow progress of the Pan Borneo Highway, the frequent electricity disruptions, and persistent water supply shortages have eroded confidence in the GRS-led government.
Many Sabahans feel left behind in infrastructure and economic growth, especially when they compare their state to Sarawak’s rapid advancement in digital economy and renewable energy.
Another thorny issue is the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), particularly Sabah’s claim to a 40 per cent share of revenue collected by the federal government. Successive state governments have raised the issue, but many Sabahans feel that the promises have been long ignored. Hajiji has tried to project himself as a leader who can negotiate better terms with Putrajaya, but the slow progress risks disillusioning voters.
To make matters worse, public mood is influenced by emotive cases like that of 13-year-old Zara Qairina Mahathir, whose death in a boarding school dormitory in Papar triggered outrage and demands for justice. Although unrelated to GRS, such incidents feed into a climate of distrust toward institutions and can shape voter sentiment indirectly.
With so many moving parts, what are the possible outcomes? One scenario is that GRS, even if weakened, scrapes through by aligning with PH. This would ensure federal backing but could fracture the coalition if STAR and SAPP walk out.
Another scenario is a hung assembly, which many observers, including the veteran journalist, see as highly possible. In such an outcome, the post-election horse-trading will determine who becomes chief minister.
The potential contenders for the top job are plenty. Hajiji, of course, wants to retain it, but if GRS underperforms, he may be replaced by allies like Gagasan Rakyat Deputy President and GRS Secretary-General, Datuk Seri Masidi Manjun, and Gagasan Rakyat Vice-President, Datuk Dr Mohd Arifin Arif.
Bung Moktar, despite being a longshot, could emerge if UMNO performs strongly. Jeffrey will try to position himself as a kingmaker, while Shafie will make a determined push to reclaim the seat of power.
From a federal perspective, Anwar’s preference appears clear: he would rather work with Hajiji than risk empowering UMNO or reviving Shafie as chief minister. But Sabah politics has a habit of defying federal scripts. Deals made before the polls may not hold after results are announced. Loyalties can shift overnight, and the infamous Sabah tradition of “frogging” could resurface if no coalition commands a clear majority.
One thing is certain: unlike Sarawak, where Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) enjoys near-absolute control and autonomy, Sabah’s GRS will never command the same level of authority since the state’s politics are too fragmented, personalities too ambitious, and federal intervention too constant.
The election will therefore not only decide who governs Sabah but also shape how much autonomy the state can realistically exercise within Malaysia.
As the campaign unfolds, all eyes will be on whether Hajiji can keep his coalition intact while courting PH, whether UMNO can reassert its dominance, and whether Shafie can leverage his East Coast fortress to return as chief minister.
It will be a high-stakes gamble with no guaranteed outcome. In Sabah, the only certainty is uncertainty, and the 17th State Election looks set to reinforce that truth once again. And it promises to be a high-voltage test of alliances, ambition, arithmetic and drama.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of Sarawak Tribune. The writer can be reached at rajlira@gmail.com
