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“The hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning.”
– Adlai Stevenson 1, Ex-US Vice-President
LET me be very honest. I thought I’m very familiar with Sabah politics, being in close contact with several notable politicians there and having written frequently on the subject.
But today, I have to concede that I’m actually in the dark about current politics in the Land Below the Wind. Sabah politics isn’t what it used to be.
In fact, I’m confused, very confused now with what is going on in politics in Sabah, particularly so as the 17th Sabah Election looms.
I had worked in Sabah for a few years in the late 80’s and came to know quite a number of key political leaders at that time, many of whom are still active politicians today.
I have been in contact with several of them throughout these few decades, and so, I should know enough of Sabah politics. But no, today I must admit that I know very little of its current politics.
Oh yes, politics in Sabah has often been described as very fluid. Today, it is not only fluid, it’s confusing.
This is one key factor why. Sabah politics today is a maze of shifting alliances and uncertain loyalties, a far cry from the days when the political landscape was defined by a few dominant leaders and clear party lines.
Sabah’s history of frequent defections – what locals jokingly call “frogging” – has created a culture of political fluidity where no coalition can be fully trusted to last.
The fall of the Warisan government in 2020 and the rise of Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) exemplified this volatility, with former allies turning foes and long-time adversaries suddenly sharing power.
What makes Sabah especially complex is the overlapping web of coalitions that operate both locally and nationally.
GRS, Barisan Nasional (BN), Warisan, Pakatan Harapan (PH), and several other local parties like STAR, SAPP, KDM and PCS all coexist, compete, and sometimes cooperate, often at the same time.
Many leaders publicly champion “Sabah for Sabahans”, yet align themselves strategically with federal power blocs in Kuala Lumpur to secure funds or influence.
This balancing act blurs ideological lines and leaves voters uncertain about who truly represents state interests.
Adding to the confusion is the absence of a commanding figure who can unite Sabah’s diverse ethnic and political groups.
The era of strongmen like Datuk Harris Salleh, Datuk Joseph Pairin Kitingan, and Tan Sri Musa Aman has given way to a field of mid-level leaders such as Datuk Hajiji Noor, Datuk Shafie Apdal, Datuk Yong Teck Lee and Datuk Dr Jeffrey Kitingan – each powerful in pockets but unable to consolidate statewide dominance.
As a result, Sabah’s politics is in a state of constant negotiation and reinvention, driven less by ideology than by survival and expediency.
The upcoming 17th Sabah Election in Sabah, polling of which is scheduled for November 29 with nomination on November 15, is indeed shaping up to be a very crowded and fluid contest.
There are many moving parts, shifting alliances and local dynamics that make clear predictions difficult.
Even as I admit to being somewhat confused by the state of Sabah politics today, I feel compelled to take a closer look at the coming state election and offer my take on how things might unfold when voters cast their ballots on November 29.
This election promises to be one of the most crowded and unpredictable contests in Sabah’s history.
With so many parties and coalitions vying for influence – from GRS to BN, PH, Warisan, STAR, SAPP and a host of smaller local outfits – voters are truly spoilt for choice.
Yet that abundance of choice also creates uncertainty. The field is so fragmented that no single coalition appears strong enough to win an outright majority.
If one must identify the frontrunner, GRS under Chief Minister, Datuk Hajiji Noor, appears to hold the upper hand for now.
As the incumbent government with a strong local identity and grassroots machinery, GRS enjoys the advantage of familiarity and stability.
However, internal strains, breakaway factions, and vote-splitting could limit its gains. BN and PH, though struggling to find clear footing in Sabah, may still pick up urban and mixed seats, while Warisan – banking on its “Sabah first” message – could perform well in certain regions and play the role of kingmaker.
Observers are watching other local parties like STAR, SAPP and others with much interest. Their battle cry of “Vote local parties and Sabah for Sabahans” could garner them some support, particularly in the Kadazandusun and urban Chinese constituencies.
In short, GRS probably has a structural edge, but that does not mean a guaranteed win or large majority. The possibility of a hung assembly or coalition-government is high.
When the dust settles on November 29, I believe GRS will emerge with the largest number of seats but fall short of a simple majority.
That would set the stage for a round of post-election negotiations and possible coalition-building.
In short, the likeliest scenario is a hung assembly, where Sabah’s political future will once again depend on alliances struck after the votes are counted.
● Francis Paul Siah is a veteran Sarawak editor and currently heads the Movement for Change, Sarawak (MoCS). He can be reached at sirsiah@gmail.com
DISCLAIMER:
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of Sarawak Tribune.
“In politics, there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.”
– Lord Palmerston (Henry John Temple), 3rd Viscount Palmerston (1784-1865), a prominent British statesman and Prime Minister in the 19th century.
