“Still a long way off … Who knows? You can do the calculations yourselves.”
– Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg (in reply to reporters’ queries on the 13th state election date)
THE political drumbeats are beginning to grow louder across Sarawak. The 13th Sarawak state election may not have been officially announced, but in coffee shops, political circles and newsroom corridors, the conversation has already shifted from “if” to “when”.
Most analysts are confident that the polls will be held this year. The more intriguing question is timing. National Professors Council senior fellow Datuk Dr Jeniri Amir has speculated that the election could be held after Malaysia Day on Sept 16, with polling possibly falling between late October and early November.
That is a measured and thoughtful assessment. Yet, when we examine historical patterns, weather considerations, political momentum and strategic calculations, September itself emerges as a highly plausible window. History, as always, offers useful clues.
Sarawak has shown a distinct pattern of favouring September for its state elections. The third state election was held from Sept 15 to Sept 22, 1979. That election was significant not only because it took place in September, but because it marked the first time Sarawak conducted its state polls separately from the nation’s general election of 1978.
The trend continued in subsequent decades. The sixth state election was held between Sept 27 and 28, 1991. The seventh followed closely in early September, held between Sept 7 and 8, 1996, with nomination on Aug 27 that year. Notably, the state assembly was dissolved on Aug 15, 1996, well before its expiration in late November. The eighth election also took place in September, on Sept 27, 2001, with nomination on Sept 18.
Since 1979, four state elections have been conducted in September. That is not coincidence. It suggests a strategic preference shaped by both climate and political calculation.
There were exceptions. The fourth state election in 1983 was held at the end of December, and the 12th Sarawak state election took place on Dec 18, 2021. But those December polls were held under different circumstances. The 2021 election, in particular, was delayed due to the COVID-19 emergency. It was an extraordinary situation, not a normal electoral rhythm.
The Landas season, which typically runs from late November through December and into January and February, brings Sarawak’s heaviest rainfall and highest flood risks. Areas such as Limbang, Lawas and Bau frequently experience heavy, continuous downpours, sometimes resulting in flooding and disrupted transport. Conducting elections during this period poses logistical challenges, especially in rural and riverine constituencies.
Although Sarawak has held elections in December on two occasions, the practical realities of weather risks make late November and December less appealing in normal circumstances. Voter turnout, campaign mobility and polling-day logistics can all be affected. September and October, by contrast, generally provide more stable weather conditions.
Beyond climate, the political environment appears highly favourable to Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg and his Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) coalition. Under his leadership, Sarawak has experienced significant economic expansion, aggressive infrastructure development and enhanced fiscal autonomy.
The 2026 State Budget, presented in November last year, was laden with initiatives and allocations that many would describe as “feel-good” measures. Development projects, welfare programmes and strategic investments were rolled out in a manner that strengthens public confidence. It is difficult to ignore the possibility that the budget was crafted with an electoral slant in mind.
Politically, timing the dissolution of the state assembly in late August or early September would align neatly with this strategy. Voters would have digested the budget announcements. The positive mood from Gawai Dayak in June would still linger, and Malaysia Day celebrations on Sept 16 would provide an additional emotional and patriotic high. Elections thrive on momentum and optimism, and the second half of September could capture both.
Political analyst Datuk Prof Dr Jayum Jawan predicts the election could be held after the Gawai Dayak celebration. His reasoning is that the first half of 2026 is packed with festive occasions: Chinese New Year in mid-February, Hari Raya in late March and Gawai in early June, creating an upbeat atmosphere. That festive mood, he says, provides a strategic opportunity for the government to seek a fresh mandate.
His argument is sound. Festive seasons soften political tensions and reinforce community goodwill. However, dissolving the assembly immediately after Gawai might be considered slightly premature if the government wishes to fully capitalise on the budget impact and Malaysia Day symbolism. September allows for both.
Another factor that may weigh heavily in GPS’ calculations is the condition of the opposition. At present, no opposition party appears capable of mounting a serious challenge. The DAP currently holds only two state seats. Recent developments in Sabah, where DAP was wiped out in the state polls, have sent a strong signal. Sentiments rejecting ‘outsider’ or Malaya-based parties were prominent in Sabah, and similar undercurrents exist in Sarawak.
If Sarawak voters were to emulate their Sabah counterparts, DAP’s position could weaken further. The possibility, however remote or bold it may sound, of the opposition being drastically reduced, or even absent, in the next state assembly cannot be dismissed outright. PKR, too, faces the challenge of being perceived as an ‘external’ party that increasingly emphasises Sarawak-first account.
Jayum himself has noted that sentiments rejecting outsider parties could affect both DAP and PKR. When the electorate is satisfied with local leadership and sees tangible development on the ground, the appetite for change diminishes.
From a purely strategic standpoint, holding the election in September or early October would allow GPS to contest from a position of strength: favourable weather, festive afterglow, budget goodwill, visible development achievements and a fragmented opposition.
Delaying until late October or November, as some speculate, remains plausible. But moving too close to the Landas season introduces unnecessary risks. Moving too early, before Malaysia Day, might forgo symbolic advantages.
In politics, timing is everything. Dissolving the state assembly in late August would mirror the 1996 and 2001 precedents. Nomination could be set in early September, with polling later that month. It would not be unprecedented. It would, in fact, follow a familiar Sarawak pattern.
Another factor that could influence the timing of the 13th state election is the proposed increase in the number of state assembly seats. The state assembly recently approved a motion to increase the number of seats by 17 from the current 82 to 99, although the proposal still requires approval by Parliament. Should that approval come in time, Sarawak could potentially head into the next polls with 99 constituencies.
An expansion of seats would not merely be numerical; it would reflect demographic growth, rural-urban shifts and the need for better representation across Sarawak’s vast geography. Over the years, population movements, new townships and economic corridors have altered the distribution of voters. More seats could allow for more focused representation, particularly in rapidly developing or previously underrepresented areas.
However, the key question is whether the federal approval process can be completed in time. If Parliament endorses the increase before dissolution, the Premier may see advantage in contesting under the new 99-seat configuration. If not, the election would likely proceed under the existing 82-seat framework.
Either way, the seat expansion proposal adds another layer of intrigue to the timing calculus. Should the green light come early enough, it could further strengthen the argument for a September or October election, giving the electorate a chance to vote within a newly structured and arguably more representative state assembly.
Then again, only Abang Johari knows the precise date he has in mind. Yet if we study history, climate, festive cycles, fiscal strategy and political arithmetic, the signs point strongly towards September or early October as the most logical window.
Sarawak has often charted its own course in politics. If tradition, pragmatism and strategic advantage align once more, the winds of September may again carry the state to the ballot box, and return GPS to power with another emphatic mandate.
The views expressed here are those of the columnist and do not necessarily represent the views of Sarawak Tribune. The writer can be reached at rajlira@gmail.com
