KUCHING: Political tensions within the unity government have reignited speculation of an early general election.
Political analyst Lee Kuok Tiung believes Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim may be seriously weighing a snap election following escalating tensions within the ruling coalition.
Lee, an associate professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said the country’s political temperature surged after Anwar openly declared at the Johor Pakatan Harapan convention on Sunday that he was prepared to face a nationwide snap election.
According to Lee, the Prime Minister’s remarks were prompted by three major political developments currently unfolding in the country.
The first, he said, was the move by Johor Barisan Nasional (BN) to contest all 56 state seats on its own in the coming Johor state election.
Lee pointed to Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi’s announcement as a direct challenge to the unity government arrangement between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN).
“BN Johor going completely solo is as if a red line has been drawn, directly undermining the unity government brand,” he said.
Lee stressed that the present federal administration was formed through post-election political negotiations after a hung parliament rather than through a direct electoral mandate from voters.
He also noted that developments in Negeri Sembilan have further complicated relations between PH and BN at the grassroots level.
The third factor, according to Lee, concerns internal tensions within Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), particularly involving former Economy Minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and fellow party leader and former Minister of Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.
He said recent announcements and actions by Rafizi and Nik Nazmi, together with their supporters, reflected widening fractures within PKR itself.
“Rafizi and Nik’s latest actions imply high-profile internal fractures and have pinned Anwar into a corner,” he said.
Lee added that Anwar may feel compelled to seek a fresh mandate to avoid appearing politically weak, although such a move carries considerable risks.
“A snap election at this juncture could pose significant risks to Anwar’s position, but it also presents a slim opportunity to clear the air politically,” he explained.
On the economic front, Lee warned that the country is entering what he described as a “blowback phase”, with rising public sensitivity towards inflation and the possibility of further fuel subsidy reductions.
He noted that voters in Peninsular Malaysia are facing mounting economic pressures, while Sabah and Sarawak have somewhat different realities due to state-level assistance programmes.
“In Sarawak, there are forms of assistance such as electricity bill subsidies from the state government. Sabah and Sarawak voices remain important because if their voices are weak, fuel prices could easily mirror those in the peninsula,” he said.
Nevertheless, Lee pointed out that consumers in East Malaysia still feel the impact of rising prices because many goods are transported from Peninsular Malaysia.
He cautioned that holding an expensive nationwide election amid a worsening cost-of-living situation could trigger voter backlash.
Lee also observed that if PH and BN contest against each other in the peninsula, moderate and establishment votes could split, potentially benefiting Perikatan Nasional and especially Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS).
“The only path for Anwar to emerge stronger may be through a snap election to consolidate his mandate, neutralise internal rebels and secure a formal pre-election pact with East Malaysian blocs while bypassing an unpredictable UMNO,” he added.
