KUCHING: For decades, rural constituencies have been regarded as the cornerstone of electoral success in Sarawak.
While they continue to play a decisive role in determining who governs the state, political analyst Dr Hafizan Mohamad Naim believes Sarawak’s political landscape is evolving, making the traditional rural-versus-urban narrative increasingly insufficient to explain electoral outcomes.
The senior lecturer at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS), said rural seats remain important in the race for the Sarawak mandate, but cautioned against viewing the coming election solely through that lens.
“To some extent, yes,” she said when asked whether rural constituencies remain the key battleground.
“However, I would argue that framing the election simply as a contest over rural constituencies no longer fully captures the evolving dynamics of Sarawak politics.”
Historically, rural constituencies have formed the bedrock of every ruling coalition in the state, including Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS). The coalition’s commanding performance in the 2021 Sarawak election reinforced that reality.
GPS secured 76 of the 82 seats with approximately 61 per cent of the popular vote, demonstrating that electoral victory is determined not merely by winning the highest number of votes overall, but by securing support in strategically important constituencies.
Its dominance across rural and interior areas translated a comfortable vote share into an overwhelming legislative majority.
Nevertheless, Hafizan argued that Sarawak’s electoral geography has changed considerably over the past decade.
Many constituencies once regarded as predominantly rural have experienced rapid transformation through improved road connectivity, expanding townships, better educational opportunities, wider internet access and stronger economic integration.
These developments have created electorates that still retain many characteristics of rural communities while becoming increasingly connected to urban political discourse through digital platforms and greater mobility.
As a result, the conventional distinction between rural and urban constituencies is becoming less relevant in understanding voter behaviour.
Despite these changes, Hafizan does not foresee dramatic electoral swings in Sarawak’s traditional rural heartlands.
Their voting patterns, she noted, have historically remained relatively stable, providing the ruling coalition with a dependable electoral foundation.
Instead, she believes the political contest is gradually shifting towards interior and, more significantly, semi-rural constituencies.
She pointed out that the nature of electoral competition has already evolved over the past three state elections.
The 2011 election was largely defined by the opposition’s growing strength in urban centressuch as Kuching, Sibu and Miri, where attention centred on whether opposition parties could continue expanding their urban support.
Following the formation of GPS after 2018, however, the coalition successfully repositioned its political strategy around Sarawak’s rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), state autonomy, political stability and rural development.
According to Hafizan, these issues resonated strongly with voters and enabled GPS to consolidate support across rural and interior constituencies, laying the foundation for its landslide victory in 2021.
Looking ahead, she believes the next phase of Sarawak’s electoral competition will increasingly centre on semi-rural constituencies.
These areas occupy the middle ground between rural and urban Sarawak. While development remains a key priority, voters are becoming more attentive to broader concerns, including employment opportunities, governance, accountability and the rising cost of living.
As these constituencies continue to evolve, Hafizan believes they will provide the clearest indication of the direction Sarawak politics is heading and may ultimately emerge as the state’s most closely watched electoral battleground in future elections.
