By Nik Nurfaqih Nik Wil
JAKARTA: Indonesia’s newly established export entity Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) is expected to have only a limited near-term impact on the country’s economy and commodity export market, easing concerns over major changes to strategic commodity exports.
RHB Investment Bank (RHB IB) said its base-case scenario assumes DSI will initially function as a governance platform for strategic commodity exports rather than an active commercial participant, resulting in limited near-term macroeconomic implications.
“This scenario also represents the most balanced outcome across stakeholders, allowing the government to strengthen governance while enabling private exporters, overseas buyers, financial institutions and investors to continue operating within a broadly familiar commercial environment,” the investment bank said in a research note.
Reflecting that assessment, RHB IB maintained its forecasts for Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 5.0 per cent in 2026 and 5.1 per cent in 2027, with inflation projected at 2.8 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively, while expecting Bank Indonesia to keep its benchmark policy rate at 6.0 per cent throughout the 2026-2027 period.
Established under Government Regulation No 24 of 2026, which took effect on June 1, DSI is Indonesia’s designated export state-owned enterprise for strategic natural resource commodities, creating a dedicated institutional mechanism for government participation in the governance of selected commodity exports.
The regulation authorises DSI to participate in designated export transactions either as the owner of exported commodities or as an intermediary between domestic suppliers and overseas buyers, although implementing regulations, including the commodities covered and operational procedures, have yet to be finalised.
The bank noted that Indonesia’s 10 largest merchandise product groups account for about two-thirds of the country’s exports, highlighting the significance of strategic commodities such as coal, palm oil and nickel that could eventually come under DSI’s governance framework.
RHB said broader government participation in strategic commodity exports could strengthen transparency, oversight and national value capture over time, while allowing the government to play a more active role in managing the country’s strategic natural resource exports.
However, it said a more interventionist approach could reduce commercial flexibility for private exporters, create greater uncertainty for overseas buyers and financial institutions, and prompt investors to demand a higher risk premium until DSI’s operational framework becomes clearer.
It added that DSI’s long-term economic significance would depend less on the legal authority granted under Government Regulation No 24 of 2026 than on future implementing regulations and how the new entity’s operational role evolves in practice.
— BERNAMA
