KUCHING: Beting Maro may emerge as the most closely watched Malay-Melanau majority constituency in the coming state election, despite the seat’s increasingly comfortable winning margins for the ruling coalition.
Political analyst Dr Hafizan Mohamad Naim, a senior lecturer at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS), said Beting Maro remained interesting because opposition support had not disappeared, even though its ability to mount a serious challenge appeared to have weakened.
She said four other constituencies — Lingga, Kuala Rajang, Muara Tuang and Balingian — also deserved close attention as all had recorded declines in winning margins in recent elections.
“Among the Malay-Melanau-majority constituencies, Beting Maro is the clearest seat to watch in the coming state election,” she said.
Hafizan said the seat’s electoral history showed how dramatically its political landscape had changed.
In 2011, Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) won Beting Maro by only 391 votes, giving it a narrow 6.8 per cent margin.
However, the margin widened substantially to 1,707 votes, or 21.6 per cent, in 2016 before remaining at a similar level in 2021, when GPS secured a 1,711-vote majority or 23.4 per cent.
She said although PAS remained the main challenger in 2021, it had failed to reproduce the highly competitive contest witnessed in 2011.
“This means Beting Maro should still be watched closely, but the longer-term trend has actually favoured GPS rather than the opposition,” she said.
According to Hafizan, the figures suggested that GPS had gradually built a wider electoral buffer in the constituency, transforming what was once a highly marginal seat into one that had become progressively more secure.
She said the opposition, particularly PAS, would need to regain the momentum it had demonstrated in 2011 if it wanted to seriously challenge the incumbent political dominance.
Meanwhile, Lingga, Kuala Rajang, Muara Tuang and Balingian represented a second group of constituencies worth monitoring.
Hafizan stressed that none of the four could currently be classified as marginal seats, but their declining margins suggested some erosion in the scale of GPS dominance.
Lingga provided the clearest example, with its winning margin declining consistently from 48.6 per cent in 2011 to 47.2 per cent in 2016 and 35.7 per cent in 2021.
Despite the decline, she noted that a 35.7 per cent margin remained substantial and did not indicate that the seat was immediately at risk.
Kuala Rajang and Muara Tuang recorded sharper changes, after enjoying very strong margins in 2016.
Kuala Rajang’s margin fell from 79.4 per cent in 2016 to 44.4 per cent in 2021, while Muara Tuang dropped from 69.4 per cent to 47 per cent.
Balingian, meanwhile, showed a more gradual weakening, with its margin narrowing from 63.3 per cent in 2011 to 54.4 per cent in 2016 and 51 per cent in 2021.
Hafizan said the coming election would provide an important test of whether the declining-margin trend would continue, stabilise or reverse.
“Overall, however, the empirical picture still points to strong GPS-PBB dominance in Malay-Melanau constituencies,” she said.
