JAKARTA: The risk of forest and land fires is expected to persist in parts of Indonesia into early October, with a very strong El Nino forecast to prolong dry conditions and keep rainfall generally low across much of the country.
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) said relatively dry atmospheric conditions remained particularly evident in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan, where high concentrations of hotspots have been detected over the past 10 days alongside reports of forest and land fires.
The agency said that as of Sept 21, Central Kalimantan recorded the highest concentration with 5,283 hotspots, followed by South Sumatra with 1,485 and West Kalimantan with 1,357, while hundreds more were detected in South and East Kalimantan.
“As dry conditions strengthen, the public and regional governments are urged to conserve water and increase vigilance against the threat of drought and forest and land fires,” it said in a statement on Tuesday.
BMKG forecast rainfall across most of Indonesia to remain at low to moderate levels from late September into early October, although localised heavy rain could still occur as shorter-term atmospheric conditions promote rain-cloud formation in some regions.
In its 2026-2027 rainy season outlook, BMKG said more than 60 per cent of Indonesia’s land area is expected to see the rainy season begin later than the long-term average for the respective regions, with many areas entering the season in November or December.
Its Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said the rainy season was also forecast to be shorter than usual across more than half of the country’s land area, although this does not necessarily mean rainfall will be lower throughout the season.
“Although it is predicted to be shorter, the 2026/2027 rainy season is generally expected to have normal rainfall,” he said in a separate statement, adding that some areas could receive above-normal rainfall while a smaller proportion is forecast to be drier than usual.
BMKG said much of Indonesia is expected to reach the peak of its rainy season between December and February, although the timing varies across the vast archipelago.
It also urged authorities to improve drainage systems and evacuation preparedness for floods and landslides at the onset and peak of the rainy season, as the country prepares for an eventual shift from prolonged dry conditions to increased rainfall.
