KUALA LUMPUR: A group of experts have concluded that the “hedging behaviour” of Asean member states and the bloc’s lack of cohesiveness are among the weaknesses that needed to be overcome in order to navigate the new trade order.
CIMB Asean Research Institute (CARI) chairman Tan Sri Munir Majid said Asean must forge deep partnerships within the bloc to ensure its centrality among the competing forces.
“Asean’s political determination will either make or break the bloc’s integration aspiration. “It will either set Asean apart from the protectionist trade order, or derail it from its integration trajectory,” he said in a statement yesterday.
The statement is part of the CARI Roundtable Series entitled “How does Asean navigate the new trade (dis)order?”.
Meanwhile, Professor Kuik Cheng Chwee, associate professor of the Institute of Malaysian and International Studies (IKMAS) at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), said the growing United States (US)-China trade uncertainty had been the primary external factor shaping Southeast Asian security and economic environment in the Donald Trump-Xi Jinping era.
“But the issue is not just about trade, it is also about the risks of power rivalries, the dangers of Asean marginalisation, and the politics of infrastructure development partnerships,” he said.
Kuik pointed out that the challenges and opportunities caused by the structural uncertainties had prompted the medium- and small-sized regional states to deepen their hedging behaviour.
Echoing similar views, Malaysia-China Chamber of Commerce honorary advisor Ng Lip Yong said Asean member states would likely prioritise national interests above Asean’s regional interest, amidst the current US-China trade tensions.
“Although Asean is often considered an economic bloc, it is unlikely that Asean will respond to the new trade scenario in a cohesive manner,” he said.
Citing the case of the European Union-Asean free-trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, where only Singapore and Vietnam had signed the FTA with the EU, Ng said the new trade scenario had resulted in bilateral rather than multilateral agreements.
Touching on issues related to China and Asean, Penang Institute executive director Datuk Ooi Kee Beng said China’s rise in recent decades had caused some worry among its small neighbours.
“While Asean countries tend to think of China as an unstoppable rising power, it is crucial for Asean to understand the nature of China’s rise the way they would do with a peer country.
“How China rebuilt itself, how this informs its immediate future and the way it views the world provide a perspective worth contemplating for strategists,” he added. –Bernama
