KUCHING: The widening gap between Malaysia’s economic performance and household realities could become Pakatan Harapan’s (PH) biggest political vulnerability over the next 12 to 18 months.
Political sociology professor at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM), Professor Dr Novel Lyndon, said respectable economic growth and relatively moderate headline inflation would carry limited political value if ordinary Malaysians continued struggling with the rising cost of daily necessities.
He said voters were more likely to judge the PH led government based on the prices of food, housing, transport, utilities and other essentials than on headline economic indicators.
“Although Malaysia continues to record respectable economic growth and relatively moderate headline inflation, voters assess the government through the prices of food, housing, transport, utilities and other daily necessities.”
He added that the key political issue was whether household incomes and purchasing power could improve visibly enough for people to feel that they were benefiting from economic growth.
“If household incomes and purchasing power do not improve visibly, official economic achievements will have limited political value.”
From a political-sociological perspective, he described the situation as a problem of “distributive legitimacy”, where the economy may be expanding but citizens do not necessarily believe they are receiving an equitable share of that growth.
He said this disconnect could fuel wider voter dissatisfaction and eventually undermine support for Anwar’s administration.
He pointed to setbacks experienced by PH in Sabah, Johor and Negeri Sembilan as signs of declining enthusiasm among sections of its traditional urban, younger, middle-class and reform-oriented electorate.
However, he cautioned that disappointed PH supporters would not necessarily automatically switch to the Opposition.
“Instead, some could choose to abstain, support smaller parties or cast protest votes.”
Such political demobilisation could be particularly damaging to PH, he said, as its previous electoral strength had depended significantly on high voter participation and confidence in its reform agenda.
He said the economic pressure was therefore not merely a question of household finances, but could have direct consequences for voter behaviour and the government’s political legitimacy.
He said the federal government also faced coalition tensions, although these remained manageable for now.
“The Unity Government brings together parties with differing ideological positions, electoral constituencies and institutional interests, with PH seeking to preserve its multiracial and reformist identity while UMNO seeks to rebuild its Malay electoral base.”
At the same time, he said GPS and GRS remained focused on regional autonomy, development allocations and implementation of the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).
He noted that DAP’s decision to remain in the government had reduced the immediate risk of political instability.
“However, stronger electoral performances by other coalition partners could eventually lead them to demand greater influence over policies, Cabinet representation and future seat negotiations.”
He said this could constrain Anwar’s freedom to make decisions even if the coalition remained intact.
Another challenge, he said, was the slow pace of institutional reform.
“Anwar and PH had entered government with expectations of stronger governance, institutional independence, transparency and anti-corruption reforms.
“While political compromises might be necessary to maintain the diverse coalition, excessive compromise could create a perception that political survival had taken precedence over reform.”
Prof Novel said Anwar’s personal approval rating remained an important political buffer but should not be regarded as an unconditional endorsement of the government.
“Personal popularity cannot indefinitely compensate for economic dissatisfaction, delayed reforms or coalition disputes.”
Ultimately, he said the federal government appeared more vulnerable to a gradual erosion of public legitimacy than an immediate parliamentary collapse.
The government would likely retain sufficient parliamentary support to complete the current term but he stressed that surviving in office was not the same as maintaining political authority.
“The decisive question is no longer whether the government has enough Members of Parliament but whether it can restore public confidence by improving household economic security, delivering credible reforms and demonstrating that coalition stability produces tangible benefits for the people.
“Parliamentary arithmetic may allow Anwar to complete the term but only effective governance and improvements in everyday life can provide the government with a convincing mandate beyond it.”
