JAKARTA: Indonesia is bracing for the peak of its dry season in August and September as a strengthening El Nino is expected to bring prolonged dry conditions, increase the risk of wildfires, and place greater pressure on water and energy resources across much of the country.
Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) Deputy for Climatology Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan said the latest forecast remained in line with projections issued in March and May, with 48.8 per cent of Indonesia’s seasonal zones expected to reach their dry season peak in August and a further 25 per cent in September.
“As of last night, BMKG’s monitoring recorded 5,019 hotspots, and the cumulative hotspot trend from January to mid-July 2026 has risen more rapidly than during previous El Nino years in 2015, 2019 and 2023,” he said at a press briefing on Thursday, streamed live on YouTube.
He said West Kalimantan, South Papua and Riau recorded the highest number of hotspots, while wildfire risk is forecast to remain elevated between August and November, peaking in August and September. Priority provinces requiring close attention include Riau, South Sumatra, Jambi, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan and South Papua.
Ardhasena said the latest monitoring showed the Nino 3.4 index, a key measure of El Nino strength in the central equatorial Pacific, had risen above 1.56, exceeding the 1.5 threshold for a strong El Nino.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which could further suppress rainfall over parts of Indonesia, is also forecast to develop between September and December, he said.
Ardhasena said the prolonged dry season would affect sectors beyond disaster management, with climate information helping farmers adjust planting schedules and crop varieties, while rainfall forecasts would support water management at hydropower plants.
He said higher temperatures were expected to increase electricity demand, while lower reservoir and lake levels could affect hydropower generation, making efficient water allocation and early operational planning crucial to maintaining a stable power supply.
However, he said El Nino’s impact on Indonesia is expected to ease as the rainy season begins around mid-October, with wetter conditions gradually spreading from western Indonesia in October and November despite the phenomenon persisting until at least the first quarter of 2027. – BERNAMA
