KUCHING: Political realignment in Malaysia is becoming increasingly plausible but an immediate change in the federal government remains unlikely, says political sociologist, Professor Dr Novel Lyndon.
Novel, a political sociology professor at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, said elements of political realignment were already visible although electoral shifts should be distinguished from an immediate change in federal administration.
“The first possibility is a reconfiguration of Malay politics,” he said, pointing to the Johor election, where electoral analysis indicated that improved support for Barisan Nasional (BN) among Malay voters coincided substantially with declining support for Perikatan Nasional (PN), including among younger Malays,” he added.
“If this develops into a broader pattern, the future contest may no longer simply be PH versus PN. UMNO-BN could attempt to re-establish itself as the principal centre of Malay political representation.”
Novel said BN’s strategic options had also expanded, with its cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH) at the federal level not necessarily determining its political relationships at state or electoral levels.
He cited the Negeri Sembilan election as an example of how fluid political relationships had become, with parties potentially cooperating in Putrajaya, competing in one state and forming different alliances elsewhere.
“This means Malaysian politics may increasingly operate through multiple levels of coalition bargaining,” he opined.
At the same time, Novel said PH was facing internal pressures, citing DAP’s forthcoming congress on Sunday (Aug. 16) and its decision as an indication of dissatisfaction within an important segment of the governing coalition.
He also pointed to internal disruption within PKR following Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli’s departure and the emergence of Bersama although anti-party-hopping provisions had made mass individual defections significantly more difficult than during the 2020 political crisis.
However, Novel stressed that the anti-hopping framework did not completely eliminate the possibility of coalition-level realignment.
“If the federal equation were eventually to change, the more plausible route is not dozens of individual MPs crossing the floor. It would more likely occur through negotiations among entire parties or blocs,” he added.
He said this made the position of Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and other East Malaysian parties strategically important.
“As the Peninsular political system becomes more fragmented, the bargaining value of cohesive regional blocs increases,” he stressed.
Novel said Sabah and Sarawak parties could become decisive in determining which Peninsular coalition was capable of forming a viable federal majority if Parliament became closely divided.
From a political sociology perspective, he said he would not presently predict an imminent collapse of the federal government.
“The more serious phenomenon is a restructuring of the relationships beneath it,” he added.
He concluded that while the probability of an immediate change in federal government remained relatively low, the likelihood of significant political realignment before the 16th General Election (GE16) was considerably higher.
“The critical question is no longer simply whether the Unity Government will survive but what the balance of power among PH, BN, the opposition and the East Malaysian blocs will look like when Malaysia approaches GE16.”
