KUCHING: Sarawak’s strategic position is likely to strengthen ahead of the state election as coalition politics gives regional parties greater bargaining power, says political sociologist Dr Novel Lyndon.
The Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities professor said the current federal political landscape was likely to strengthen rather than weaken Sarawak’s position and bargaining power.
He said Malaysia’s coalition-based politics had made regional parties increasingly important in sustaining federal governments, giving Sarawak greater leverage in negotiations over development allocations, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), fiscal decentralisation and administrative autonomy.
“From a political sociology perspective, this reflects a shift from a highly centralised model of federalism towards a more negotiated form of intergovernmental relations, where political legitimacy is increasingly built through consensus rather than numerical dominance alone,” he said.
Consequently, he said Sarawak was entering the state election from a position of relative strategic advantage.
However, greater bargaining power also raised public expectations that state leaders must translate political influence into tangible policy outcomes.
“This makes performance and delivery central to electoral legitimacy,” he said.
On whether Sarawak was becoming increasingly influential in determining the stability of the Federal Government, Novel said the state had indeed become more influential, although it should not be viewed as the sole determinant of federal stability.
“Rather, it is now one of the key pillars within Malaysia’s coalition politics,” he said.
He noted that no single coalition had consistently secured an overwhelming parliamentary majority in recent years, making support from Sarawak strategically significant in government formation, legislative negotiations and confidence-building.
According to Novel, the development represented a structural transformation in Malaysia’s political system, with political power becoming more dispersed and regional actors playing a greater role in shaping national governance.
“This development reinforces the importance of federal bargaining and shared governance while providing Sarawak with greater opportunities to advance state interests within the constitutional framework,” he said.
Nevertheless, he stressed that Sarawak’s sustained influence would depend on its ability to maintain political unity, negotiate effectively and demonstrate that its greater role contributed not only to state interests but also to national stability and effective governance.
He said Sarawak’s growing influence should not be seen merely as a product of temporary coalition arithmetic, but as part of a deeper transformation in Malaysia’s federal political order.
“The decline of single-coalition dominance has shifted the centre of political power from majoritarian control towards negotiated federalism, where regional actors possess greater strategic leverage in shaping national governance,” he said.
Novel said Sarawak’s bargaining power derived not only from its parliamentary representation but also from its ability to provide political stability, policy legitimacy and continuity in federal governance.
However, he cautioned that influence should not be equated with permanent power.
He said Sarawak’s long-term political relevance would ultimately depend on its capacity to convert strategic leverage into lasting institutional reforms, particularly in advancing MA63, strengthening fiscal and administrative decentralisation, and securing a more balanced federal arrangement.
“Ultimately, the true measure of Sarawak’s political influence will not be whether it can determine who forms the Federal Government, but whether it can reshape the rules of federal governance in ways that produce more equitable power-sharing, strengthen democratic legitimacy, and reinforce the stability of the Malaysian Federation as a whole,” he said.
