KUCHING: The present federal government remains numerically stable, but growing tensions among coalition partners are creating an increasingly fragile political equilibrium.
Political sociology professor at Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia’s Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Professor Dr Novel Lyndon, said the country was experiencing a paradox of a “stable government, unstable political equilibrium” amid the fluid political situation in Malaya.
Assessing the situation, Novel said there was currently no convincing evidence that the administration led by Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim faced an imminent collapse.
He noted that Barisan Nasional (BN) chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi had reiterated on Jul 23 that BN remained committed to the unity government until the end of the 15th Parliament.
“However, political sociology reminds us that government stability cannot be measured purely by counting members of parliament (MPs). We must distinguish between parliamentary stability and coalitional legitimacy.
“It is the second dimension that is becoming more problematic,” he said.
Novel said the changing relationship between Pakatan Harapan (PH) and BN was among the major developments reshaping the internal dynamics of the unity government.
He pointed to BN’s overwhelming victory in the Johor election, where the coalition won 48 of 56 seats, as having strengthened its confidence and demonstrated its ability to perform electorally without relying heavily on PH.
The Aug 1 Negeri Sembilan election further reinforced the shift, with BN winning 18 seats, PH 11 and Perikatan Nasional (PN) seven.
“This changes the internal sociology of power within the unity government. In 2022, BN entered the arrangement from a relatively weak electoral position.
“In 2026, a stronger BN has greater capacity to negotiate policy, seat allocation and the terms of cooperation leading towards the 16th general election (GE16),” Novel said.
At the same time, he said PH was facing a different challenge — growing erosion of confidence among sections of its reform-oriented electorate.
He said DAP’s decision to put its continued participation in government before delegates at its Aug 16 congress was particularly significant.
However, Novel stressed that the move should not currently be interpreted as an attempt to bring down the federal government, noting DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke had indicated that the decision concerned participation on the government front bench rather than withdrawing support for Anwar or leaving PH.
Nevertheless, he said the development carried important symbolic implications, reflecting tensions between the demands of governing and the electoral identities of individual parties.
“Parties entering broad coalitions must compromise to govern, but excessive compromise can alienate their traditional supporters,” he said.
Novel said the greatest danger facing the government at present might therefore not be another sudden “Sheraton Move”, but progressive political fragmentation.
He described the emerging risk as coalition partners remaining together administratively while increasingly differentiating themselves electorally.
“This is where the real political vulnerability of the unity government lies,” he said.
