KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd has lowered Bursa Malaysia Bhd’s forecast equity market average daily value (ADV) for the financial years (FY) 2026, 2027 and 2028 to RM3.1 billion, RM3.2 billion, RM3.3 billion, respectively.
The stockbroker’s previous assumptions for the exchange operator’s ADV for FY2026-FY2028 were RM3.3 billion, RM3.4 billion, RM3.5 billion, respectively.
In a company note, CIMB Securities said the outlook was partially offset by higher derivatives average daily contract (ADC) forecasts of 96,500-101,300 versus 90,000-92,400 previously.
“Consequently, we have trimmed our FY2026, 2027, 2028 net profit forecasts by 3.7 per cent, 4.5 per cent, and 4.0 per cent, respectively.
“While FY2026 forecast earnings are projected to grow by a robust 16.2 per cent year-on-year (y-o-y), growth is expected to normalise in FY2027 and FY2028 projections to 3.2 per cent and 2.8 per cent y-o-y respectively, reflecting a more subdued medium‑term outlook,” it said.
It noted that Bursa Malaysia is expected to announce its first quarter (1Q) FY2026 results on April 30, 2026.
Based on equity market trading data, it said the ADV, including both on-market and direct business trades, rose by 23 per cent y-o-y to RM3.5 billion, driven by a risk-on phase (January–February 2026), underpinned by elevated participation, improved sentiment, and increased foreign flows.
“This was followed by a risk-off phase (March 2026), where heightened geopolitical tensions in West Asia triggered a spike in volatility (44 per cent in 1Q 2026), prompting market sell-down, portfolio repositioning, and a higher investor risk premium.
Meanwhile, the brokerage firm said that the derivatives market activity strengthened in 1Q 2026, with derivatives contracts traded rose 5.2 per cent y-o-y to 6.2 million, supported by a 6.0 per cent y-o-y growth in crude palm oil futures (FCPO) contracts, which accounted for 84 per cent of total contracts, while FBM KLCI Futures (FKLI) volumes remained flat y-o-y.
“Combined, the equity and derivatives trades are expected to yield a 1Q 2026 forecast net profit of RM81.9 million, representing 27.6 per cent of our revised FY2026 net profit forecast of RM290.8 million in this note (down 3.7 per cent from RM302 million) and accounting for 28.4 per cent of the RM288.5 million consensus estimate.
“We downgrade Bursa Malaysia to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’ as we cut our target price to RM9.00 (from RM9.70), reflecting the downgrades to our FY2026–28 earnings forecasts and a derating of our valuation multiple for the company,” it said. – BERNAMA
