KUCHING: Sarawak’s proposed 17 new constituencies could reinforce Gabungan Parti Sarawak‘s (GPS) dominance while creating three crucial urban battlegrounds, says political analyst, Dr Hafizan Mohamad Naim.
According to her, the Election Commission’s (EC) decision to publicly display the proposed new state constituencies and revised electoral boundaries until September 30 marks a significant turning point ahead of the next Sarawak election.
She said the redelineation is more than a technical exercise of adjusting boundaries – it fundamentally reshapes voter composition, campaign strategies and the political landscape in several key urban areas.
Among the 17 proposed seats, he identified Tabuan Jaya, Sungai Merah and Maong as the constituencies most likely to become fiercely contested.
“Tabuan Jaya is the clearest potential battleground,” she said.
The proposed seat is carved out from areas currently within Batu Lintang and Pending, two constituencies that recorded some of the closest contests in the 2021 state election. Batu Lintang was won by just 93 votes, while the Democratic Action Party (DAP) retained Pending with a slim 540-vote majority.
She said the new configuration preserves a substantial opposition support base, making Tabuan Jaya a genuine opportunity for opposition parties if they can consolidate urban votes.
In Sibu, Sungai Merah is expected to emerge as another highly competitive seat.
The Universiti Malaysia Sarawak‘s (UNIMAS) senior lecturer noted that the creation of Sungai Merah and Bukit Kemuyang redistributes voters from constituencies that have historically produced mixed results for GPS and the opposition.
“Based on the 2021 voting pattern, Sungai Merah appears more favourable to the opposition than Bukit Kemuyang, making it one of DAP’s strongest prospects among the new constituencies,” she said.
The third seat to watch is Maong in the Stampin area, where urban and suburban voters have demonstrated stronger opposition support in parliamentary elections, although GPS has generally performed better in state polls.
Overall, she believes Tabuan Jaya and Sungai Merah stand out as the two clearest battlegrounds, while Maong remains an intriguing swing constituency where turnout, candidate appeal and vote consolidation could prove decisive.
At the statewide level, however, Hafizan expects GPS to emerge as the larger beneficiary of the redelineation.
She said many of the additional constituencies are located in regions where GPS already enjoys overwhelming electoral dominance, strengthening its structural advantage in the State Legislative Assembly.
“GPS is likely to benefit more overall, but the opposition gains several strategically important opportunities in Kuching, Sibu and Miri,” she explained.
While those urban seats may not dramatically alter the overall balance of power, they could provide the opposition with valuable footholds in areas where support is already substantial.
The proposed changes also present major challenges for several incumbent assemblymen.
Hafizan said Senadin assemblyman, Datuk Seri Lee Kim Shin, faces perhaps the most significant structural shift, with the existing constituency effectively divided into the proposed Permaisuri and Tudan seats, while the remaining area is reconfigured as Lopeng.
Pending assemblywoman, Violet Yong, also confronts a politically significant reshaping of her electorate.
Under the proposal, established neighbourhoods, including Kenyalang Park and Taman Supreme, would be transferred into the new Tabuan Jaya constituency, altering the voter base she has represented for years.
“This is more than changing lines on a map,” Hafizan said.
“For some incumbents, familiar communities disappear, new communities enter, and electoral coalitions built over many years must be rebuilt. It is effectively a reset.”
She said the proposed redelineation will require incumbents to rethink not only campaign strategies but also the grassroots networks and voter relationships that have traditionally underpinned their electoral support.
