CAPE TOWN, South Africa: A surge in shipping traffic around the Cape of Good Hope is presenting South Africa with a rare strategic opportunity to reclaim its role in global maritime trade, but analysts say structural weaknesses in its ports risk undermining its ability to capitalise on the increase.
The rerouting of vessels following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the joint United States (US) and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, and Tehran’s subsequent retaliation, has forced maritime traffic away from traditional routes and toward southern Africa.
Some of the world’s largest shipping companies, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM, have diverted vessels around the Cape instead of transiting via the Suez Canal over security concerns, turning the route into a critical artery of global trade.
The Cape of Good Hope recorded a 112 per cent surge in vessel reroutings as of the first week of March, Anadolu Ajansi reported, citing the Cape Town Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
While the surge presents an opportunity to reshape global shipping routes beyond the current conflict, port performance in South Africa has deteriorated in recent years, complicating efforts to position the country as a reliable maritime hub.
Francois Vrey, professor emeritus at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University, said an average of 70-80 vessels transit through the Cape daily alongside rerouted traffic, but warned that the country is struggling to fully benefit from the increase.
Many vessels are currently bypassing South African ports due to perceptions of poor service, but Vrey said the country has an opportunity to reposition itself as a safe and efficient stopover for global shipping.
South Africa’s ports in Cape Town, Durban and Ngqura rank among the worst-performing globally, placing 391st, 398th and 404th out of 405 ports in the World Bank’s Container Port Performance Index.
The country, historically Africa’s largest fuel supply hub, has seen its monthly average fuel supply volume fall from 130,000 tonnes in 2023 to around 80,000 tonnes in 2024, according to consultancy PwC.
Long wait times at ports and difficult weather conditions have also prompted some vessels to opt for alternative hubs such as Namibia’s Walvis Bay and Mauritius’ Port Louis in recent years.
Vrey said some South African ports are unable to operate at full capacity due to poor management
and outdated infrastructure.
Climate-related challenges such as strong winds and rough seas have also left the Cape route particularly vulnerable, he added.
However, he said the current West Asia crisis disrupting maritime trade should be turned into an opportunity for South African and continental ports to become reliable service hubs during both stable and crisis periods.
South Africa is working on emergency response plans to reverse this trend, while parliament is advancing legislation aimed at reforming port infrastructure and granting greater autonomy to Transnet National Ports Authority, according to Anadolu.
These reforms are expected to pave the way for private-sector partnerships at port terminals.
Transnet National Ports Authority told Anadolu in a written statement that six vessels rerouted since February 28 had been serviced at three ports for refueling and provisions.
It added that rerouted vessels are being closely monitored and that efforts are underway to ensure existing port capacity is used efficiently to meet demand.
The authority also said it operates a complementary port system that allows maritime resources and fleet capacity to be redeployed where needed during periods of high demand. – BERNAMA-ANADOLU
