KUCHING: Coalition tensions are fuelling election speculation, but political readiness varies sharply across Malaysia’s major alliances, says analyst Datuk Professor Dr Lee Kuok Tiung.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s remark on Sunday that he is considering a snap general election amid escalating tensions within the unity government has sparked fresh debate on whether political parties are truly prepared for an early parliamentary contest.
According to Lee, the level of preparedness among the country’s major coalitions remains “highly uneven”, with each bloc entering the possibility of a snap election under very different political circumstances.
Lee, an associate professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said the most prepared coalition appears to be Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), which he described as operating within “an entirely different political ecosystem”.
“Sarawak’s local machinery is tightly controlled, financially robust, and insulated from friction on the Peninsula,” he said.
He noted that Sarawak’s state election is already expected this year, meaning GPS remains in a constant state of election readiness.
“An early federal dissolution does not catch them off guard. It simply triggers their standard ‘Sarawak First’ defence mechanism, which sweeps the state’s 31 parliamentary seats,” he added.
Lee said GPS also recognises the importance of expanding its appeal among Sarawak’s Chinese electorate, which is currently dominated by the Democratic Action Party (DAP) in Parliament.
From GPS’ perspective, he said, Chinese representation from Sarawak should come through local-based coalition parties rather than national opposition-linked parties.
This explains why political competition in Sarawak is increasingly centred on the battle between DAP and the Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), especially in urban and Chinese-majority constituencies.
For Pakatan Harapan (PH), Lee observed that election preparations have already been activated in several states, particularly Johor.
He also pointed to political movements in Melaka, Negeri Sembilan and Sarawak as indications that PH is preparing for multiple electoral possibilities simultaneously.
However, he cautioned that PH still faces significant challenges, particularly among Malay working-class voters.
“PH remains heavily reliant on urban, non-Malay and progressive voters,” he said.
According to Lee, rising frustrations over subsidy rationalisation, economic reforms and cost-of-living pressures have weakened PH’s standing among segments of the Malay electorate, leaving limited time to rebuild trust should Parliament be dissolved suddenly.
Meanwhile, Barisan Nasional (BN), particularly UMNO, was described as being “aggressively ready” at the grassroots level across Peninsular Malaysia.
Lee said BN’s confidence is partly driven by internal instability within Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu), one of the key pillars of Perikatan Nasional (PN) alongside Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS).
He noted that BN has strategically maintained election preparedness through standalone state polls in Johor and Melaka, where historically lower voter turnout has favoured BN’s disciplined and longstanding grassroots machinery.
“In the last state elections, when the Malay vote split into three blocs, BN enjoyed the advantage,” he said.
Lee believes the prospect of a snap election would therefore create very different political outcomes for each coalition.
While GPS appears structurally secure in Sarawak and BN confident in its traditional machinery, PH may face a more difficult battle in consolidating support beyond its urban strongholds.
As speculation over Parliament’s dissolution intensifies, the political temperature within the unity government is expected to rise further in the months ahead.
