KUCHING: A good outcome for Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) in the next state election must translate to it going beyond simply retaining power, especially given its current strong position and a fragmented opposition in the state.
Political analyst Datuk Dr Lee Kuok Tiung said that maintaining or surpassing its previous electoral performance would therefore be crucial, as any perception of weakening support could undermine the coalition’s political standing.
“A good result for GPS is not only about winning but also about preventing any narrative of decline,” he said.
Lee, an associate professor at the Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, said GPS cannot afford any narrative suggesting erosion of its support base.
While the coalition is expected to continue dominating rural constituencies, he said urban seats, particularly Chinese-majority areas, will be the key indicator of voter sentiment towards the administration of Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Openg.
He said GPS must at least retain its current urban position, and ideally improve its performance by winning additional seats.
Any gains in urban areas, he added, would signal growing acceptance of the “Sarawak First” agenda promoted by Abang Johari.
According to Lee, urban constituencies will effectively serve as a barometer of public approval for the state government’s policies, including its focus on local autonomy, economic transformation, and greater control over Sarawak’s resources.
He said the election outcome will therefore function as a broader referendum on the administration’s governance direction.
Lee also dismissed the idea that simply retaining a two-thirds majority should be considered a satisfactory outcome for GPS.
While a two-thirds majority is sufficient for constitutional amendments and stable governance, he argued that the political expectations for GPS, given its dominance, are significantly higher.
He explained that because GPS already holds a dominant position in Sarawak politics, any reduction in its seat share, even if still large, could be interpreted as a weakening of its political grip.
Beyond seat numbers, Lee said GPS is seeking a stronger mandate to reinforce its position in negotiations with the federal government on key state interests.
A larger electoral victory, he said, would strengthen GPS’ leverage in discussions with Putrajaya, particularly on matters involving the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), Sarawak’s rights over oil, gas and renewable energy resources, and its status as an equal partner within the federation.
He added that a decisive win would provide greater political legitimacy for Sarawak to push its autonomy agenda more assertively at the national level.
Conversely, a reduced majority could be interpreted as weakening local support, potentially affecting GPS’ bargaining power in federal-state relations.
Lee also expects that the coalition would use the election to reaffirm its dominance over national-based parties, highlighting the limited influence of Peninsular-based political coalitions in Sarawak.
Such an outcome would reinforce the “Sarawak First” narrative that has become central to GPS’ political identity and strategy.
However, he cautioned that any losses suffered by GPS should not automatically be seen as an opposition breakthrough. Instead, they may reflect internal dynamics within the coalition itself.
Ultimately, Lee said the upcoming state election is not just about forming the next government, but about consolidating political authority.
It will test whether GPS can transform its current dominance into an even stronger mandate that reinforces its control at both state and federal levels, while sustaining the political direction championed under Abang Johari’s leadership.
