BY RASHEEQA BAHIDA & NURIN PATRA
KUCHING: A surprise Sarawak election within the next 100 days could give Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) a decisive advantage by catching opposition parties unprepared.
Political analyst, Datuk Dr Lee Kuok Tiung, said the element of surprise remains one of the strongest strategic considerations should the state government opt for an early dissolution of the State Legislative Assembly (DUN).
“An early election would make it difficult for opposition parties, particularly Democratic Action Party (DAP), Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) and several local parties to finalise strategies, identify candidates, and mobilise their machinery and financial resources in Sarawak.
“At the same time, GPS would be able to capitalise on the current wave of political stability before any domestic or global developments affect voter sentiment,” he told Sarawak Tribune.
Speculation over the timing of the next state election has intensified in recent weeks as Sarawak moves closer to the end of its current term.
Lee noted that the first sitting of the 19th Sarawak Legislative Assembly was held in February 2022, meaning the state election must be held by around April 2027 at the latest.
While the election date remains the prerogative of Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg, he said several factors could influence the timing of the polls.
Among them is the proposed increase in the number of state seats from 82 to 99, which has already been approved by the Sarawak Legislative Assembly and is awaiting parliamentary approval before implementation.
“The additional seats are important in easing potential tensions over seat allocations among GPS component parties.
“However, the longer GPS waits, the more time and space it gives the opposition to strengthen its preparations,” he said.
Lee said GPS currently appears to be in a strong position, with no major issue capable of significantly undermining its electoral prospects.
At the last state election, GPS won 76 of the 82 seats contested, while the four seats won by Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) are now effectively within the ruling bloc following the party’s merger into Progressive Democratic Party (PDP).
He added that upcoming state elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan could also serve as indicators of broader political momentum, particularly if the results are unfavourable to Pakatan Harapan (PH).
Apart from political considerations, weather and economic conditions may also influence the timing of the election.
“The monsoon season could create logistical challenges, especially in rural and interior constituencies.
“Likewise, if global economic uncertainty begins to impact Sarawak more significantly, bread-and-butter issues could become a major campaign concern for the ruling coalition,” he said.
On the possibility of holding the Sarawak election concurrently with the 16th General Election (GE16), Lee described such a scenario as unlikely and impractical.
He noted that Sarawak is constitutionally required to hold its state election by April 2027, while GE16 is only due by February 2028.
Although simultaneous elections could reduce administrative costs for political parties and the Election Commission, Lee said the arrangement would likely benefit the federal ruling coalition more than GPS.
“GPS has built its success on a Sarawak-first platform centred on state rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), oil and gas interests and Sarawak’s development agenda.
“If the election is held together with a general election, those state-based narratives could be overshadowed by national political issues,” he said.
He also warned that national political sentiments could influence voting patterns, particularly among urban and semi-urban Chinese voters.
According to Lee, waiting for approval of the additional seats or aligning the state election with GE16 could also be perceived as tying Sarawak’s political timeline to Peninsular Malaysia, which runs contrary to GPS’ long-standing emphasis on Sarawak’s political autonomy.
Commenting on recent remarks by Deputy Premier Datuk Amar Dr Sim Kui Hian referencing a 100-day timeframe, Lee said the statement should not be interpreted as a signal that an election is imminent.
Instead, he said it was a call for party members and grassroots machinery to intensify preparations and remain election-ready as the end of the current term approaches.
“We are entering the final stretch of the current mandate, so it is only logical for political parties to step up preparations.
“Ultimately, the timing of the election remains entirely at the discretion of the Premier,” he said.
