BY RASHEEQA BAHIDA & NURIN PATRA
KUCHING: Sarawak appears to be entering into an “informal election mode” as political activity intensifies ahead of the next state election.
Political analyst, Professor Novel Lyndon, said the trend is reflected through increased political messaging, stronger grassroots engagement, development announcements, constituency visits, and efforts to consolidate support around key issues such as Sarawak rights, the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63), revenue, infrastructure, energy transition, and rural development.
“While the next Sarawak election must be held by 2027, GPS leaders have already indicated that polls could be called this year, and early dissolution remains politically possible,” he told Sarawak Tribune.
According to Novel, holding the election within the next 100 days could offer Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) a strategic advantage if the ruling coalition believes the current political mood remains favourable and manageable.
He noted that GPS continues to benefit from incumbency, an extensive rural machinery network, access to development narratives, and an image of political stability under Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg.
“GPS is clearly better prepared than the opposition in terms of machinery, candidate networks, and rural mobilisation,” he said.
While acknowledging that the Democratic Action Party (DAP) may retain influence in selected urban constituencies, Novel said opposition parties continue to face structural challenges, including limited rural reach, weaker local machinery, and difficulties positioning themselves as a credible alternative government.
By comparison, he said GPS is likely to campaign on continuity, stability, Sarawak autonomy, development delivery, and its bargaining power within federal politics.
Novel said several developments may influence the timing of the election, including the proposed increase in state seats, Sarawak’s economic ambitions in hydrogen and green energy, cross-border development initiatives, ongoing MA63 negotiations, and uncertainty in the national political landscape.
“If federal politics becomes increasingly unstable, GPS may prefer to secure a fresh state mandate earlier rather than risk external factors affecting the political environment,” he said.
On voter sentiment, Novel said current indicators suggest support remains tilted towards continuity rather than change, particularly in rural and semi-rural constituencies.
However, he cautioned that GPS should not become complacent, as younger voters, urban electorates, cost-of-living pressures, candidate quality, and unresolved development issues could still affect electoral margins.
“GPS is expected to frame its campaign around stability, autonomy and development, while opposition parties are likely to focus on accountability, checks and balances, rising living costs, and local grievances,” he said.
Based on existing political indicators, Novel believes GPS remains the clear favourite to win the next state election if it is held within the next 100 to 300 days.
“The bigger question is not whether GPS wins, but the scale of its victory,” he said.
He added that Abang Johari’s personal popularity could play a significant role in shaping the outcome, noting that many voters tend to separate their assessment of federal politics from state-level leadership.
“Major state initiatives involving infrastructure development, the digital economy, energy projects, and Sarawak’s sovereign wealth agenda have further strengthened the Premier’s image as a development-oriented leader,” he said.
